Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen is motivated by a desire to better understand the impact of conflict in Yemen across multiple pathways of human development. We assess this by calibrating the International Futures (IFs) model to create four alternative scenarios. These scenarios reflect three potential pathways of conflict development (ending in 2019, 2022 and 2030), as well as a counterfactual world in which conflict did not escalate after 2014. With these scenarios we estimate the impact of conflict on development across multiple issue areas (demographic, economic, education, infrastructure, health, etc.).
The first report, Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen, concludes that the ongoing conflict has further reduced the pace of development. The impacts of conflict in Yemen are devastating—with nearly a quarter of a million people killed by fighting and through lack of access to food, health services and infrastructure. Of the deaths, 60 per cent are children under the age of five. This is the most destructive conflict since the end of the Cold War with long-term vast long-term impacts that have already set back human development in Yemen back by 21 years.
The second report, Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen on Achieving the SDGs, expands upon the first report by analyzing how the conflict is changing development across four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The four SDGs were chosen based upon core United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) priorities and are: SDG 1: No Poverty; SDG2: Zero Hunger; SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; and, SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities. Although Yemen was not on course to achieve the SDGs by 2030, with the persisting conflict, as of today Yemen will not achieve the SDGs until 2061 — a full 31 years after the deadline.